NAMPA — The battle between Democrat Keith Allred and Republican Gov. Butch Otter to lead Idaho is now playing out behind the scenes, as herds of computer-aided partisans make phone calls and trek door-to-door in their final get-out-the-vote push.
Both sides are armed with custom campaign software, to help their candidates merge publicly available information from election offices, like lists of registered voters, with other data such as how much voters likely earn or even what magazines they read.
They mine the details to recruit donors — or even help hopefuls for elected office hone their messages, by tracking phone calls and e-mails that come into party or campaign offices.
With just three days to go before Tuesday's vote, the databases are now being leaned on heavily by Republicans and Democratic organizations in Idaho alike to sharpen their all-important endgame: Making sure prospective supporters who haven't yet cast their ballots get into the polling booths before they close.
"Most people have decided," said Jasper LiCalzi, professor of political economy at the College of Idaho in Caldwell. "What you try to do now is, drum up your people and make sure they go out and vote."
In Idaho, Republicans and Democrats are reluctant to disclose too much about their databases, guarding this proprietary information like state secrets.
The Democrats use a microtargeting system called VoteBuilder, while Republicans call their system Voter Vault.
Jonathan Parker, Idaho Republican Party's executive director, said the Republican National Committee has spent millions this year, including in Idaho, to bolster their information on likely voters. The investment this year is, in part, a result of the party's loss of the 1st Congressional District U.S. House seat in 2008 when Democrat Walt Minnick beat Bill Sali — and concern the dominant GOP had lost some its edge.
"The data we have now is significantly better than even just two years ago," Parker said. "You're on to something. I'm not sure the RNC would have invested so much in Idaho if their intention wasn't to unseat Walt Minnick."
Shelley Landry, coordinated campaign director for the Idaho Democratic Party in Coeur d'Alene, said her party began using the VoteBuilder database in 2004 and has been improving it ever since.
Allred, who spent Saturday campaigning in Caldwell and Nampa where he waved to drivers on busy streets, said the internal databases have given him confidence that he's faring better with voters than a recent Idaho newspaper poll indicated. It showed Allred behind by as much as 22 percent.
"A very different picture emerges from those doing a telephone random-sample survey and what we've working on: Identifying actual voters," Allred said. "When we look at voters who consistently turn out, we're doing very well."
The high cost of running campaigns has also boosted the importance of developing reliable voter databases: No candidate wants to spend time or money on advertising in a race's waning days to reach a voter who long since cast an absentee ballot.
So Republican and Democratic loyalists are closely tracking the 90,000 people who requested absentee ballots this year. More than 70,000 people had turned in absentee ballots by late-afternoon Friday, according to Secretary of State Ben Ysursa's office — significantly more than the last midterm election in 2006, when only 56,000 people in Idaho voted absentee.
Armed with this information, Otter's campaign this weekend has been able to target what it believes are likely Republicans who haven't yet weighed in. Come Monday, many of these Idaho residents will get a full-color flier in their mailboxes featuring the 68-year-old governor — dressed in a cowboy hat on one-side, a business suit on the other with the message "Butch Otter, a man for our times."
"At this point in the race, the most important thing is we get people to the polls," said Ryan Panitz, Otter's spokesman. "We have phone bankers, calling around the clock."
The 46-year-old Allred is relying on similar information his campaign has in its data troves.
He's sending out his own flier, picturing him on horseback and with his family, to prospective supporters in Nampa, Caldwell, Idaho Falls and Coeur d'Alene who indicated they identified with neither Republicans nor Democrats when they were contacted earlier this year.
"This is our final push on message, to a small, targeted universe of independent voters," said Shea Andersen, Allred's campaign spokesman. "The basic idea, we know independents relate really well to Keith, who is an independent running with the blessing of the Democratic party. That's why we're targeting them."
Both sides are armed with custom campaign software, to help their candidates merge publicly available information from election offices, like lists of registered voters, with other data such as how much voters likely earn or even what magazines they read.
They mine the details to recruit donors — or even help hopefuls for elected office hone their messages, by tracking phone calls and e-mails that come into party or campaign offices.
With just three days to go before Tuesday's vote, the databases are now being leaned on heavily by Republicans and Democratic organizations in Idaho alike to sharpen their all-important endgame: Making sure prospective supporters who haven't yet cast their ballots get into the polling booths before they close.
"Most people have decided," said Jasper LiCalzi, professor of political economy at the College of Idaho in Caldwell. "What you try to do now is, drum up your people and make sure they go out and vote."
In Idaho, Republicans and Democrats are reluctant to disclose too much about their databases, guarding this proprietary information like state secrets.
The Democrats use a microtargeting system called VoteBuilder, while Republicans call their system Voter Vault.
Jonathan Parker, Idaho Republican Party's executive director, said the Republican National Committee has spent millions this year, including in Idaho, to bolster their information on likely voters. The investment this year is, in part, a result of the party's loss of the 1st Congressional District U.S. House seat in 2008 when Democrat Walt Minnick beat Bill Sali — and concern the dominant GOP had lost some its edge.
"The data we have now is significantly better than even just two years ago," Parker said. "You're on to something. I'm not sure the RNC would have invested so much in Idaho if their intention wasn't to unseat Walt Minnick."
Shelley Landry, coordinated campaign director for the Idaho Democratic Party in Coeur d'Alene, said her party began using the VoteBuilder database in 2004 and has been improving it ever since.
Allred, who spent Saturday campaigning in Caldwell and Nampa where he waved to drivers on busy streets, said the internal databases have given him confidence that he's faring better with voters than a recent Idaho newspaper poll indicated. It showed Allred behind by as much as 22 percent.
"A very different picture emerges from those doing a telephone random-sample survey and what we've working on: Identifying actual voters," Allred said. "When we look at voters who consistently turn out, we're doing very well."
The high cost of running campaigns has also boosted the importance of developing reliable voter databases: No candidate wants to spend time or money on advertising in a race's waning days to reach a voter who long since cast an absentee ballot.
So Republican and Democratic loyalists are closely tracking the 90,000 people who requested absentee ballots this year. More than 70,000 people had turned in absentee ballots by late-afternoon Friday, according to Secretary of State Ben Ysursa's office — significantly more than the last midterm election in 2006, when only 56,000 people in Idaho voted absentee.
Armed with this information, Otter's campaign this weekend has been able to target what it believes are likely Republicans who haven't yet weighed in. Come Monday, many of these Idaho residents will get a full-color flier in their mailboxes featuring the 68-year-old governor — dressed in a cowboy hat on one-side, a business suit on the other with the message "Butch Otter, a man for our times."
"At this point in the race, the most important thing is we get people to the polls," said Ryan Panitz, Otter's spokesman. "We have phone bankers, calling around the clock."
The 46-year-old Allred is relying on similar information his campaign has in its data troves.
He's sending out his own flier, picturing him on horseback and with his family, to prospective supporters in Nampa, Caldwell, Idaho Falls and Coeur d'Alene who indicated they identified with neither Republicans nor Democrats when they were contacted earlier this year.
"This is our final push on message, to a small, targeted universe of independent voters," said Shea Andersen, Allred's campaign spokesman. "The basic idea, we know independents relate really well to Keith, who is an independent running with the blessing of the Democratic party. That's why we're targeting them."
Source: Idaho Statesman
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